The Belgrade Stock Exchange showed signs of life in July, but is it genuine optimism or just a mask for quiet panic? The Belexsentiment index rose for the third consecutive month and now stands at 111.81 points, supposedly indicating mild investor optimism. But let’s dig a little deeper.
Inflation in Serbia slowed to 3.8% in May, better than the previous 4%, and industrial production grew by 2.5% from January to May. Domestic stock indices posted positive results in the first half of the year: Belex15 jumped 3.5%, and Belexline surged 10.3%. But is that enough to celebrate?
Trading volume on the exchange in June was about 260 million dinars, a solid increase from May but still well below the average of the past year. The most traded stocks were Dunav Insurance, Energoprojekt, and Messer Tehnogas. Most of the turnover was in government bonds, which might mean investors are still seeking safety rather than risk.
Internationally, the US S&P 500 index rose 5% in June, and Japan’s Nikkei climbed 6.6%. In the first half of the year, S&P increased 5.5%, Germany’s DAX soared 20.1%, while Nikkei barely rose 1.5%. This growth was supported by strong quarterly reports, easing inflation, and stabilized oil prices, plus the euro strengthening 13.8% against the dollar since the start of the year.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the eighth time in the past year in June, but President Lagarde hinted the easing cycle is nearing its end. The National Bank of Serbia kept its key interest rate steady at 5.75% in June, with deposit and credit rates unchanged. The decision was made amid uncertainty caused by protectionist measures and their impact on inflation and economic growth.
But here’s where it gets interesting: another article reports that trading on the Belgrade Stock Exchange on July 3 was only 2.7 million dinars, with both indices falling — Belex15 down 0.04%, Belexline down 0.02%. Zlatarplast was the biggest gainer with a 5.38% rise, while Dunav Insurance, the most traded stock in June, dropped 0.45%. This casts a shadow over the “mild optimism” from the first article.
So, is the Belgrade Stock Exchange really on the rise, or is it just an illusion? Do investors truly believe in stability, or are they just playing it safe with government bonds? And why did trading volume suddenly drop at the start of July? These questions remain unanswered, but one thing is clear — the situation on the exchange is far from rosy.
If you thought investing in Serbia was an easy ride, think again. The stock market is like a carousel — up and down, and in the end, we wonder where we actually landed. What do you think? Is now the right time to buy, or better to wait for the fog to clear? Drop a comment, maybe together we can solve this stock market mystery!
