Iran is under immense pressure. In just two weeks, an Israeli military campaign destroyed a large part of Iran’s offensive capabilities, while waves of protests and economic problems continue to shake the Islamic Republic. Some experts like Nouriel Roubini and Abbas Milani believe regime change is possible or even inevitable, while others like Richard Haas argue that the conditions for a democratic breakthrough are not yet met. But what is the real truth about Iran? Is the country more ready for democracy than we think?
Although the authoritarian system is deeply entrenched, there are local self-government institutions that, while created to legitimize the regime, have become spaces of genuine civic engagement. More than 1,000 cities and 35,000 villages have elected authorities who have started discussing budgets and accountability. These institutions, though of dual purpose, could be the backbone of a post-Islamist order and democratic transition if given the chance.
Iran is a country of over 80 million people and a territory larger than France, Spain, and Italy combined. Managing this state is no easy task, but there are technical reform plans, including modernizing the municipal finance system and making budget decisions more transparent. International institutions like the UN and the World Bank are ready to assist.
However, the transition will not be smooth. The regime is under pressure, but civil society and opposition groups are weak. External forces may weaken the regime, but the internal shift to a democratic order depends on Iran’s ability to utilize existing institutions.
If the regime falls, Iran’s future will depend less on ideology and more on logistics — how the country manages itself. This is a moment to rethink our views on Iran and realize that a democratic future might be closer than we think.
So, what do you think? Is Iran really ready for democracy, or are we headed for chaos? Drop a comment and let the voice from the shadows be heard!
